Mark 28 October on your calendar. The Bank of Canada announces its next rate decision, with a new Monetary Policy Report, on 28 October 2026 (Bank of Canada). The Federal Open Market Committee meets on 27–28 October and releases its decision the same afternoon (Chicago Fed).
Where things stand
| Bank of Canada | Federal Reserve | |
|---|---|---|
| Current policy rate | 2.25% (held since October 2025) | 3.75%–4.00% (raised 16 September 2026) |
| Last move | Cut, October 2025 | Hike, September 2026 |
| What forecasters expect | Most bank economists expect a hold through 2026 | September projections point to one more hike in 2026 |
| Next decisions | 28 October | 28 October; then 9 December |
Sources: nesto; Federal Reserve; Bondsavvy.
Three things to watch
- Whether the gap widens. A Fed hike with a Bank of Canada hold would push the policy gap to about 175–200 basis points.
- Trade language. After the 29 September US import ban (Blog 11), watch how each bank describes trade risk to growth and inflation.
- Currency. Rate gaps and trade news together drive CAD/USD, which matters for every currency-mismatched loan.
What it means for lenders
Cost of capital is diverging. US lenders funding with floating-rate lines face higher costs, while Canadian capital may see more attractive US opportunities. In both cases, keep pricing inside the legal limits: Canada's 35% APR criminal rate and each US state's usury rules (Volume 1, Articles 1 and 2).
This content is general information for industry professionals and is not legal, tax or financial advice. Laws change and apply differently to each transaction; obtain advice from qualified counsel in each relevant jurisdiction. Legal counsel to the Cross-Border Private Lenders Association: Jasmine Daya & Co. Questions: info@cbpla.com